So I’m sick of hearing speculation about conference expansion/annihilation, but I guess the reality is that it is happening. It was enticing at first, but everything I have read in the past few days is frustrating me. So I would like to give some fresh perspective. There are multiple reasons I am upset with most of the current discussions. The primary reason is the way Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State would be treated if the Pac-10 turned into the Pac-16. If they were the only schools left standing from the Big 12, it would become difficult for them to ever find their way into a power conference again. So here’s my solution to all of this mess that I think should make most everyone happy. I will even touch on what should happen if the mass exodus does occur. Nebraska to the Big 10 (that I will rename the Big North) seems to be a reality more than speculation at this point. Let me know what you think.
My Preferred Scenario
Colorado and Utah to the Pac-12 (Former Pac-10) (Evidently this is what the Pac-10 initially wanted anyway)
Nebraska to the Big North (Former Big 10, now finally has 12 members)
Big 12 stays intact, with something similar to the following:
North
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
South (Texas league)
Baylor
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
TCU
Houston/Rice/SMU
This keeps the conference together without too much difficulty. It keeps Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, and Kansas State from being left out in the cold. Existing TV contracts, etc. should be able to be renegotiated for even more cash with the continued presence of its most profitable brands. Travel considerations become mostly moot, and a stronger foothold for Texas markets is created. Not to mention the North would look much like the old Big 8 (less NU obviously), while the South would look similar to the old SWC. Many alumni would be extremely happy with this. The final major plus about this scenario is that five of the existing six BCS conferences would have 12 schools participating in football, making the structure of these conferences similar going forward (giving no significant advantage to one “super conference”).
Problems with this scenario include the reliance upon Big 12 schools’ desire to keep the conference intact, with Texas being the primary player. I hate to say it, but if Texas wants the Big 12 to die, it will. Also, Missouri seems to be hellbent on bolting from the conference, which could pose a problem in future years if they were courted by another conference. The final problem I can recognize with this plan is the fight over the last Texas league spot. I don’t see many people taking issue with bringing in TCU (nor do I think the other three schools could possibly argue against it) but I could definitely see how the fight over the last spot could get ugly. Frankly, I’m not even sure who I would choose from that bunch, but I would give the edge to Houston at this point. I’m sure there are other problems with this scenario as well, but it seems mostly solid to me.
Damage Control Scenario
This assumes Nebraska to the Big North and the creation of a Pac-16 (which would hopefully be renamed). The exodus from the Big 12 would include Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and possibly Missouri (evidently the Big North is giving them the cold shoulder). The remaining schools would be Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, and Kansas State (possibly Missouri).
The Big 12 could not continue in any recognizable form, but I think the remaining four/five schools could team up to create a workable conference. I guess this is mostly wishful thinking, and I know this is unlikely simply due to some geographic inconvenience, but maybe the lack of options for the three Big 12 North schools would drive them to something like this. Fortunately, there are plenty of schools who would be happy to get an opportunity to elevate their programs, and the final product might be more geographically plausible than the initial partnership. That being noted, how about something like this…
Air Force, Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, New Mexico, Rice, SMU, and TCU. Possibly Missouri over Air Force or New Mexico if they are available.
Divisions could be made as follows:
North
Air Force/Missouri
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
New Mexico/Missouri
South
Baylor
Houston
Rice
SMU
TCU
They could call it the Big Central, the Cent-10, or something like that. I know it seems unlikely and there are some strange fits in there, but I think over time it could become a pretty decent conference, even possibly expanding by two members at some point. It would be a good geographical fit for most of the schools and provide an opportunity for some of the schools which have lost some of the spotlight over the years to possibly regain some of it, or even capture it for the first time. Hopefully it never comes to this, but at this point I am leaving no possibility out.
Conclusion
With Nebraska prepared to bolt by the weekend, I am pretty sure we will have a good idea as to what is going to happen by next week, but you never know in the crazy world of collegiate athletics. I wish everything in our world wasn’t about money, but that is what this has all come down to. It is my hope that at some point the leaders in all of these scenarios have the best interests of their schools at heart, but only time will tell.
Tags: baylor, big 12, conference, expansion, ncaa football, nebraska, pac-10, pac-16, texas, Texas Tech